International Affairs/Relations
Global power is a complex mixture of the sustainability of the country in economic, political, military, social, and humanitarian leadership and its packaged global attractiveness.There have been controversies surrounding China ascending to superiority globally. Currently, the United States still holds global supremacy in terms of military power as well as global influence. People who argue that China has the potential of becoming the superiors globally have the notion that economic, technology, energy and military prowess with a global presence are the necessities of becoming superior and China currently is in the road to have all of them while the opposers of China superiority have the idea that China has been unable to forge significant alliances with the major players in the world, myopia, conflict with the United States, and China will eventually experience one or more civil disputes on the scale that it has in the past.
Some factors can lead a nation to become a superpower, which includes economic might, technology, and military prowess with a global presence.For any country to be a superpower, its military has to the best in the world (Brooks and Wohlforth, 41).I think U.S. military power is often exaggerated and overrated. In the graveyard of all empires, Afghanistan, it is showing even more bad judgment than the Soviets who only did nine years of folly; the Americans are up to 11 years and counting. The U.S. might have a large military, but it exercises no real power. China, on the other hand, has the military now has the second-largest budget in the world. As the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. A, so will its military budget. It will acquire better technology, better weapons, and more of everything. Militarily the best analogy between the U.S. A and China is like that of the U.S. A and Germany before World War II. Although, Germany had better technology, better generals, better trained soldiers, better weapons, and better tactics; the U.S. economic might prevailed. That was it. We simply overwhelmed the Germans. Soon, the very same thing could happen between the U.S. A and China.
The Chinese economy
The Chinese have the second-largest economy in the world, and it is growing much faster than the U.S. Already, China has the world’s largest manufacturing output. This will only continue to grow as China modernizes, develops its domestic infrastructure, and builds greater economic ties with the world (Friedberg, 21).China is already an economic giant in the room, but to become the Superpower, it needs a military force with a global presence.The Communist party is educating this massive population and building a path to modern China. They have abandoned their one-child policy as the promise of being able to feed them all is right over the horizon. This means that the number two economy will have even more room to grow as the next generation arrives.
Technology is another factor that can help a country ascend to power. The Chinese government has invested in China and its people. They made vast strides in modernization. Just two decades ago, the Chinese military was nothing to be mentioned (Heath and Thompson, 109). Today they are competitive in many of the weapons systems of future warfare. From hypersonic missiles to anti-satellite missiles, to genetic development, to stealth fighter jets, the Chinese military is quickly becoming a serious challenge to the North Pacific region. As mentioned above, the Chinese are well on their way to fusion power. They are currently the world leader in solar technology. Chinese tech companies are competitive in the world market.
Another factor is energy. One of the primary reasons the Soviet Union fell is they simply could not feed and support their people under the pressure of Western isolation and Soviet Communist inefficiency. They tried to no avail to acquire fusion energy (Kanand Morrison, 58). Had they achieved that goal, the Soviet Union could have survived. But, China will undoubtedly achieve it. Once fusion energy is online, the possibilities for China are staggering. This Chinese economic machine has made infrastructure and development a primary goal. They have turned deserts into grassland. They have built roads, cities, high-speed railways, and more. All done without fusion energy. With the advent of fusion power, they can raise their massive population out of destitution and take on new projects that will amaze the people of the near future.
However, the opposers of China overtaking the United States in terms of powers have the idea that China has a conflict with the United States. China becoming the “leader” of the world depends significantly upon it, avoiding conflict with the United States (Lampton, 63). Not only does China not possess the military capabilities to engage the U.S. successfully in open warfare, but the Chinese government’s insistence upon suppressing democratic ideals and freedoms also gives the U.S. numerous avenues to destabilize that government and thus China as a nation. If China can peacefully assume the mantle of leadership from the United States, which is suffering from internal conflicts and instability, then fine, however, if China decides to begin a conflict with the United States, at best, it will suffer a military defeat. At worst, the U.S. can utilize China’s internal instabilities to foment civil unrest and perhaps even civil conflict.
Also, myopia can be the reason for the failure of China ascending to global powers. The government of China seems to be bent on fighting largely insignificant battles, which cost them prestige and trust and garner them little in return (Mearsheimer, 387). While reacquiring Hong Kong has turned out to be more of a “boon” to the nation than a curse, China insists on territorial ambitions in Tibet, Taiwan, the Xinjiang, and the South China Sea, which are of questionable benefit at best.
Additionally, China has been unable to forge significant alliances with the “major players” in the world. Besides the cultural and linguistic differences, China has proven to be rather inept in creating the trade and defense alliances which the U.S. has mastered since World War II (Wang, Stephen, and Wohlforth, 190). Whatever your personal opinions may be of NATO, GATT, and the IMF, they work, and they allow the U.S. to have a greater say in the world’s affairs than its population should enable it.
Moreover, Chinese is a complicated language to learn and to master. Being a tonal rather than a phonetic language means that most speakers will have difficulty understanding even lifelong speakers,much less new ones (Friedberg, 32). Coupled with the language being depicted in myriad pictograms (which can easily bemistaken by people who are unfamiliar with them), you have a language that will never be easily adaptable to situations outside of China.
China will eventually experience one or more civil conflicts on the scale that it has in the past. It is simply inconceivable that China will be able to advance its people economically and still repress them socially and politically (Friedberg, 36). Given that the Taiping Rebellion of the 19th Century was a conflict which exceeded the death toll of World War I, it seems reasonable to believe that future Chinese conflicts will be similarly bloody.
In as much as the population of China is vital in designing effective military personnel that can be used to ascend to powers. Having a population of almost 1.5 billion people questions its capability of handling their life necessities (Lampton, 60). China can barely maintain the basics for that number of people, and anything beyond that is merely wishful thinking. Its excessive and almost unmanageable population hamstrings China’s future. Also, resources are going to be scarce as Beijing will have to deal with hundreds of millions of people too old to work. China does not have the same social safety nets as developed countries. Those middle-aged now will be a burden on the country where traditionally it was extended family and children who cared for the old. With the falling population and single-child families, mixed with massive economic inequality and disparate growth, millions will have nobody to rely on in old age. The current national projects will be under pressure as this crisis takes hold.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the struggle for global superiority has had controversies as some people argue that with the rapid growing of China in terms of economic, technology, energy and military prowess, it poses a threat of overtaking the United States in the coming years; however, some still hold to the notion that overtaking the U.S. cannot happen due to China has been unable to forge significant alliances with the major players in the world, myopia, conflict with the United States, and China will eventually experience one or more civil conflicts on the scale that it has in the past. Currently, it is the United States which is holding superiority. I think China will not be able to overtake the U.S. due to the massive population within the country that makes it struggle to sustain; thus, no resources or military personnel can be dedicated to such quest for more powers.
Works Cited
Brooks, Stephen G., and William C. Wohlforth. “The rise and fall of the great powers in the twenty-first century: China’s rise and the fate of America’s global position.” International Security 40.3 (2016): 7-53.
Friedberg, Aaron L. “The future of US-China relations: Is conflict inevitable?.” International Security 30.2 (2005): 7-45.
Heath, Timothy R., and William R. Thompson. “Avoiding US-China competition is futile: Why the best option is to manage strategic rivalry.” Asia Policy 25.2 (2018): 91-119.
Kan, Shirley A., and Wayne M. Morrison. “US-Taiwan relationship: Overview of policy issues.” Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, 2013.
Lampton, David M. “A new type of major-power relationship: Seeking a durable foundation for US-China ties.” Asia Policy 16 (2013): 51-68.
Mearsheimer, John J. “The gathering storm: China’s challenge to U.S. power in Asia.” The Chinese journal of international politics 3.4 (2010): 381-396.
Wang, William ZY, Stephen G. Brooks, and William C. Wohlforth. “Correspondence: debating China’s rise and the future of U.S. power.” International Security 41.2 (2016): 188-191.
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