Lone Wolf Terror Threats from Islamic State-PMESII Framework
The 21st century has had its share of terror attacks around the globe. Today, most nations incorporate terrorism mitigating measures into their national security policies. The United States is a common target for terrorists due to its global presence and influence around the world. Over the past few years, the United States has received lone wolf terror threats from the Islamic State, that have prompted security agencies to work around the clock. Lone wolves terrorists are individuals who work alone to cause violence and death. The Islamic State has been calling out to its followers in the United States and other countries to launch attacks. For instance, in 2017, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria turned to lone wolves to attack during Christmas. The Islamic State issued a series of threats against Europe and the United States, which prompted the United States, via the Department of State, to issue travel warnings for Americans traveling to Europe during the holiday season in 2017 (Treistman 2017).
Lone wolf attacks are further complicated when extremists return to the United States after receiving training from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. Consequently, American citizens remain in constant fear of terrorism (Barnea 2018). Lone wolf terror threats from the Islamic State are, therefore, a national security concern because if they are left unchecked, they could have devastating effects in the United States. Furthermore, lone wolves are unpredictable as there is no certainty on when and where they will attack. Since the United States has numerous residents from Muslim majority nations, lone wolf terror threats are thus a critical United States national security concern as any of these residents could have connections to the Islamic State and may act to cause terror attacks in the country (Becker 2015).
PMESII Framework
Political Assessment
The Islamic State has a political structure like any other country. For instance, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is the leader of the Islamic State and exercises control over the region. Al-Baghdadi divided the Islamic State into several provinces and appointed governors, their deputies, and Sharia officials to run administrative offices commonly known as dawawin in Arabic (Jefferis 2016). However, the structure of the Islamic State is a product of the group’s ideological evolution and perception of its intended future. However, the organization operates similarly to governments in the system it aims at replacing.
In Iraq, the organization co-opted the former Baathist Iraqi military to enhance itself. In Syria, the Islamic State manipulated the relationships between local tribes to champion its agenda against al-Nusra and the Syrian regime. Moreover, the organization has used the locals to fill up its ranks. However, a significant political achievement of the group has been to integrate tens of thousands of foreign fighters from all over the world to join its course. The Islamic State has a central command with ministries that mimic those in legitimate states. Consequently, the organization provides education, health, security, agriculture, public relations, and public services just like any other government (Jefferis 2016). These services are also replicated at regional levels by local leaders who exercise a level of governing autonomy. The Islamic State uses religion as its political strategy. When the organization occupies a new territory, it provides a series of outreach events to introduce itself where its hands out pamphlets and delivers sermons to acclimate the locals to its interpretation of Islam.
The political structure of the Islamic state thus poses a threat to the United States as the organization functions like any other government. In 2015, the organization’s influence had spread to various regions, which led to the group occupying about 138000 square kilometers, populated by eight million people (Jefferis 2016). Therefore, the influence of the Islamic State leaders cannot be downplayed as they can mobilize people from within as well as outside the group to launch lone-wolf attacks on the United States.
Military Assessment
The size of the Islamic State military is unknown, but estimates made range from tens of thousands to over two hundred thousand. However, the military has no established base, but rather uses mobile units which include light vehicles, buses, and motorbikes. Also, the military uses tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery retrieved from the Syrian and Iraqi armies. The Islamic State military also has several aircraft that can be used during attacks.
Furthermore, studies on the Islamic State military indicate a unified, coherent military leadership structure that employs a top-down command protocol. The military’s council consists of numerous former military officials from the reign of Saddam Hussien. Some of the well-known names in the Islamic State’s military top officials were detained during the American occupation in Iraq, including Haji Bakr, who is a colonel, Abu Ayman al-Iraqi, a lieutenant, and Abu Abdulrahman al-Bilawi, who serves as a captain (NBC News, 2015). The military is divided into seven branches, including snipers, infantry, special forces, artillery forces, air defense, the Caliphate Army, and the “army of adversity.” The army structure is replicated in each province under the Islamic State. The most skilled fighters and strategists serve in the Special Forces unit (NBC News, 2015).
The caliphate Army is directed by the Islamic State Central command and is made up of a significant number of foreign fighters and is deployed across the Islamic States to assist in battles. Moreover, reports show that there is an all-female brigade under the IS military tasked with policing religious laws. The military also operates using a clandestine cell system where fighters are taught to carry out operations and to create secret cells. Additionally, these fighters are taught how to attack security forces as well as the element of surprise (Horovitz, 2019). On the tactical side, the Islamic State military primarily employs guerilla warfare. The group is known for its willingness to sacrifice as many fighters as possible to achieve its goals. As such, rather than focusing on combat training, the military focuses more on indoctrinating new fighters into following orders and sacrificing their lives (Paraszczuk 2019).
The Islamic State’s military has a range of weapons at its disposal that can be used to launch attacks. The military captured a significant number of weapons during the Syrian War, as well as the post-withdrawal Iraqi insurgency (Neville and Dennis 2018). Consequently, acquiring these weapons strengthened the group’s military capabilities to carry out subsequent operations and obtain more weapons. Additionally, the organization has previously used suicide bombers and IEDs to cause terror attacks. The group has also adopted mixtures of car bombs fitted with armor and machine guns and suicide bombers to attack heavily defended targets (Neville and Dennis 2018).
The Islamic State is, thus, a threat to the United States national security as it has the capacity and capability to launch attacks either through military force or lone wolves attacks. Members of the group or other foreign fighters can enter the United States with an agenda of causing death. The organization has a special forces unit that has proved to be effective in terror attacks. Consequently, the United States intelligence agencies need to identify risk areas as well as develop ways to counter the activities of the Islamic state military activities to enhance national security.
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